blogs: Steve Coomes's blog 

Though the local restaurant scene is our main focus at Mojo, it sometimes helps to look at what's happening nationally to gain a clearer perspective of what's going on industry-wide. This morning, Nation's Restaurant News, a trade publication, reported that U.S. restaurant closures are leveling off, but that the ratio of eateries to dining customers remains out of balance. According to data provided by The NPD Group, the total number of U.S. restaurants declined 0.3 percent, or by 1,652 restaurants, to 578,353 locations last fall. Not surprisingly, the hardest hit areas included the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Ohio and Illinois, where location counts dropped 1.2-percent. The sad news is NPD believes more closures are necessary. Why? Because the supply of restaurants exceeds the number of butts to put in their seats. Despite our government's maneuvering to slowly strangle business owners with excess taxes and costs, this still is a capitalist economy where excess supply is good only for consumers, never for business owners. Add in the fact that consumers are holding onto their money tighter than I've ever witnessed, and you've got an industry facing a long-term crisis. "Some sources have said that thousands of restaurant closures are needed to restore the balance," the NRN report reads. Based on my own research and discussions with restaurant executives, I bet that's right. Yum! Brands's sales down sharply: Fast-food sales are a solid bellwether for the industry overall, so it's important to look at what's happening at Yum! Brands, headquartered here. The mighty conglomerate reported terrible sales numbers for the last quarter of 2009 at all its brands. U.S. same-store sales (a measurement of sales at stores open at least 1 year) dropped 5 percent at Taco Bell, a depressing 8 percent at KFC and a positively frightening 12 percent at Pizza Hut. In the third quarter of 2009, Pizza Hut's U.S. sales were off 13 percent. You don't need to be an industry watcher to know that's a nightmare in action. Yum also wrote off $26 million to patch up the ever-moored ship of Long John Silver's and the clearly out-of-gas A&W All-American Food. Those dismal findings led Janney Capital Markets Mark Kalinowski to write, "We would not be surprised if Yum divests itself of one or both of these concepts at some point in time." No shocker there. I'm still blown away that Yum ever bought those aged brands, thinking they would fuel the growth of its co-branding effort (pairing together Yum concepts for more offerings at a single site). Yum has largely backed off of co-branding, and it's not unfair to place a good bit of the blame on the fish and burger concepts. Still, despite lower revenue overall, Yum reported a profit for the quarter and full year 2009, which is amazing.

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	GtownGuy   thu feb 04 2010 at 10:25 am         ·  Ethnic eateries, owned by immigrants, seem to be doing very well in Louisville. Any stats on these openings in the Metro, and their survival rate as compared to establishments opened by "natives?" Any lessons to be learned by "native" chefs?
	J.S. Holland   thu feb 04 2010 at 10:49 am         ·  Pizza Hut's been on the decline for years, and the more they flail in the water trying to come up with new gimmicks - the Bigfoot, the Priazzo, the P-Zone, the Natural, the Edge, the Pizza Mia, Wing Street - the more they sink like a stone. I never liked their pie anyway. Why eat Pizza Hut when there's Impellizeri's, Za's, Bearno's, Clifton's, Spinelli's, Arni's and Boombozz? (Not to mention the ubiquitous Papa John's.) I'm surprised about KFC's downtrend though.
	cowasockee   thu feb 04 2010 at 11:04 am         ·  Hey P'zones rock! You ask why would anyone eat Pizza Hut when all those other great local pizzarita's are available...price. You can't go to any one of them without dropping 40 bucks for two. And Papa John's is one of the worst pizza's out there. In my humble opinion.
	cowasockee   thu feb 04 2010 at 11:09 am         ·  *pizzeria* Don't ask me what a pizzerita is. LOL
	dangerrunguy   thu feb 04 2010 at 4:00 pm         ·  Let us not forget Cliftons!
	Kool Jerk   thu feb 04 2010 at 4:35 pm         ·  I enjoyed my $2 feast today at Taco Bell. I was going to get two bean burritos and water but decided to try their new 5-layer beefy thing. I got a bean and 5-layer. I got filled up on the 5-layer and brought the bean home plus I took a handful of Fire Sauce. Since we are talking about YUM.
	Beverly Bartlett   thu feb 04 2010 at 9:41 pm         ·  Platinum Fox, that is amazing! Do you think it occurred to them that some customers might want to wash their hands BEFORE they eat?
	Beverly Bartlett   thu feb 04 2010 at 9:56 pm         ·  Maybe, I'm overreacting, but I find that seriously offensive. I mean if they're worried about someone wrecking the joint, buying a taco first isn't going to stop them from doing that. So the only thing it really prevents is that some one might use 3 cents worth of water and toilet paper without paying for it.
	Kool Jerk   thu feb 04 2010 at 10:02 pm         ·  I haven't used Taco Bell's bathroom in a long time. They didn't used to have a code to use the bathroom.
	SortaAlwyzSmilin   thu feb 04 2010 at 10:28 pm         ·  Do you remember when White Castles has things on the bathroom doors where you had to pay to use them?
	Kool Jerk   thu feb 04 2010 at 10:37 pm         ·  Years ago my parents told me White Castle made you pay to get in the restroom.
	Steve Coomes   fri feb 05 2010 at 7:33 am         ·  White Castle and Zayer's, that lowest of discount stores, are the only two places I've ever been that charged for restrooms. Cost a dime to get in, and this is back in the early 70s.
	Beverly Bartlett   fri feb 05 2010 at 9:12 am         ·  At the risk of arguing out of both sides of my mouth -- like I've never done that before! -- I will say that I sort of appreciated the concept of pay toilets in Europe. For one thing, they were CLEAN. And for another, I'd rather just pay a quarter than have to go through the whole calculus of "if I buy some chips I don't want, can I use this gas station bathroom, which is filthy anyway." But the ones I saw were a stand-alone business. Which seems different.
	Kool Jerk   fri feb 05 2010 at 10:12 am         ·  Target has immaculate bathrooms and they're free.
	Beverly Bartlett   fri feb 05 2010 at 10:16 am         ·  No, no... I didn't mean to suggest that free bathrooms were never free. (Although I realize that is how it might have come across.) I just meant that when traveling, I'd rather pay a quarter and get a free bathroom, then use a gas station bathroom that is filthy, but yet I have to buy something to justify it. (Which is more than the quarter anyway.) I think Kool Jerk it's actually kind of an interesting question -- why do some places, like Target, have clean bathrooms and some have terrible ones. I'm sure there's LOTS of factors, but I suspect one is how much the management cares!
	Kool Jerk   fri feb 05 2010 at 10:21 am         ·  I judge everything about a place by how clean the bathroom if. When I see the horrible bathrooms, I think this place just doesn't care. I worked in a place for 18 years that had a public bathroom that was the worlds worse. Customers crapped on the walls even.
	Kool Jerk   fri feb 05 2010 at 7:18 pm         ·  The Taco Bell at Bardstown Road and Grinstead is likely to have many street people just wander in to use the toilet and take a sponge bath in the bathroom. It's not impossible but less likely to happen in a Target.
	Kool Jerk   sat feb 06 2010 at 4:10 pm         ·  I'm amazed at how many restaurants we have and they are all packed with customers. I rarely eat out. I've been in the situation where the place you were going to eat was so packed that we left and tried another place that was also packed. Most people live to eat. I eat to live.
	Steve Coomes   sun feb 07 2010 at 2:14 pm         ·  Amen, Flexible! I've heard that joke a zillion times, but it never gets old. It's completely true. It's better to start with little and make the small fortune--if you can p ull it off!