Louisville at South Florida (-11) --- Noon - 11-21-09
This is one of those games and one of those times when Cards fans have to be thinking, "Just when we think Kragthorpe will be gone, his team will find a way to win and thus keep him here longer than necessary." I know a lot of fans who are thinking that way. Let me allay your fears...or at least sympathize with you. Because I, too, think the Cards can win this game. Have you seen South Florida play? They're terrible, but they are a little faster than UofL. Should be a defensive struggle. I'll take the home team here, but the Cards will keep it close. South Florida 17 Louisville 13
Kentucky at Georgia (-9) --- 7:50p - 11-21-09
Dare I pick the upset? This Georgia team is not very good, folks. And if UK were ever going to beat the Dawgs, I'd say this year's as good as any. Hand off to Cobb; hand off to Locke. Repeat. That will keep the Cats in this game in the fourth quarter. The Cats are already bowl eligible and they'll go somewhere other than the Liberty Bowl or the Music City Bowl, but a win over UGA could propel them into a bigger bowl altogether. I wouldn't be surprised by a win, but I'm going to call it a close win for the home team here. Georgia 24 Kentucky 23
STATS
Last Week --
straight-up: 10-5 67% against-the-spread: 8-7 53%
Season Stats--
straight-up: 103-41 72%
against-the-spread: 85-57-2 60%
Week 11: Nov. 19, 22-23
Thursday, Nov. 19
Miami at Carolina (-3) 8:20p
The Phins suffered a crushing blow last week in their narrow win over Tampa...that loss was RB Ronnie Brown, out for the season with a knee injury. That tips the scales in favor of Carolina for me. The Panthers will be the ones running all over the field with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.
Carolina 26 Miami 17
Sunday, Nov. 22
San Francisco at Green Bay (-6.5) 1p
Can the Niners duplicate the terrific defensive effort they displayed v. Chicago 10 days ago? I think they will, but they won't score enough to beat the Packers at Lambeau.
Green Bay 20 San Francisco 17
Atlanta at NY Giants (-6.5) 1p
The Falcons are slipping badly right now and the Giants are coming off a much-needed bye week. The G-men have to right the ship immediately as they can only afford one, maybe two, defeats the rest of the year. Expect a heavy dose of RBs Jacobs and Bradshaw as Eli and the passing game need some fine tuning. Atlanta's Matty "Ice" Ryan is turning into Matty "Nice" for the way he's been throwing interceptions. And without RB Michael Turner, this offense will rely more and more on his ability to hit big targets like TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Roddy White.
NY Giants 27 Atlanta 17
Washington at Dallas (-11) 1p
This line is begging for Washington money. Go ahead. You lay it. I'll watch and take it. Dallas rolls to a big win here. Forget WR Roy "Mr. Malcontent" Williams Dallas fans...this week it's the Romo-to-Austin show, for a lot of Miles.
Dallas 30 Washington 16
Seattle at Minnesota (-11) 1p
The Vikings win the close games, blowouts and average games. Under which category will this game fall? Somewhat-of-a-blowout.
Minnesota 34 Seattle 17
Indianapolis (-1) at Baltimore 1p
Without a big assist from Bill Belichick, the Colts probably would have fallen from the unbeatens. They've survived three very close calls at home in the past three weeks. And how 'bout those dropsies from the young WRs Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon in the big game v. New England? That does not bode well for big games down the line. Nor does it bode well for them this week at Baltimore. I like the Ravens to bring down the undefeated Colts.
Baltimore 23 Indianapolis 19
Pittsburgh (-10) at Kansas City 1p
In their last four games the Steelers special teams units have given up 3 returns for touchdowns. Add to that, the 3 fumbles and 1 interception returned for touchdowns and that's 7 touchdowns given away with their tough defense on the sideline. That's 49 points in 9 games. That's nearly 5.5 points per game allowed when the defense is on the bench. And in their three losses, the defense has come up with 0.0 turnovers. How many slipped through the hands of the Steelers defense last week v. the Bengals? At least three. And that's how many they'll get at K.C. this week, adding up to a big win for the black and gold.
Pittsburgh 28 Kansas City 10
New Orleans (-11) at Tampa Bay 1p
The Saints on the road have been an iffy proposition. And all those Drew Brees fans (and fantasy owners) better beware of his penchant to throw interceptions, especially as his team is about to score. They'll get the win, but the Bucs will keep this game interesting to the end.
New Orleans 27 Tampa Bay 20
Cleveland at Detroit (-3.5) 1p
Have you ever seen an offense this bad? I know, I know...you're wondering about which team I am referring. Sheesh...do I have to choose? All right, it's Cleveland's.
Detroit 19 Cleveland 6
Buffalo at Jacksonville (-8.5) 1p
News from Buffalo: the Bills have fired coach Dick Jauron--good guy, uninspiring leader. More news from Buffalo: the Bills have signed QB Brian Brohm--good guy, uninspiring talent. Wow. Sorry folks, he's just not going to make this team better.
Jacksonville 31 Buffalo 16
Arizona (-9) at St. Louis 4:05p
The Rams will play tough defense, and strike a bit of fear in the Cards with a steady diet of RB Steven Jackson who appears to be in top form. But that won't be enough to stop Kurt Warner in a return to his favorite dome and site of many, many huge passing days for him.
Arizona 27 St. Louis 20
Cincinnati (-9.5) at Oakland 4:15p
This observation from Sports Illustrated's Don Banks: "Has one team ever had a three year run of top 10 first round picks quite like Jamarcus Russell (no. 1 in 2007), Darren McFadden (no. 4 in 2008) and Darrius Heyward-Bey (no. 7 in 2009)? Can't throw, can't run, can't catch." My sentiments exactly. But watch the Raiders rise up and play their once-monthy good, tough game against the surging, but due for a bit of a letdown, Bengals.
Cincinnati 16 Oakland 13
San Diego (NL) at Denver 4:15p
The Chargers get the nod here as they are playing their best football of the season in recent weeks. Denver's playing their worst football. And they'll be without QB Kyle Orton. Put those two items together and the Chargers get the win. The key to the Chargers recent surge: a solid pass rush, and a commitment to running the ball a bit more than they had been doing. Watch them pound away at Denver's soft front seven with L.T. and Sproles and whomever else they have on their roster.
San Diego 26 Denver 13
NY Jets at New England (-10.5) 4:15p
What was Belichick thinking in that Indy game? Who knows...but any way you try to spin it, the result was not good. They'll put up some numbers against the depleted Jets defense, but these New Yorkers will keep it interesting.
New England 30 NY Jets 21
Philadelphia (-3) at Chicago 8:20p
Now sit back and watch Philly win four or five in a row. They've gotten their run of bad play out of their system and now they'll hit their stride. While the Bears defense is not good, their offense isn't good enough to outscore teams, especially with QB Jay Cutler winging interceptions all over the field. Philly in a rout.
Philadelphia 31 Chicago 13
Monday, Nov. 23
Tennessee at Houston (-4.5) 8:30p
A three game win streak with Vince Young at QB have Titans fans thinking, "Hey, if we win-out, we'll get a Wild Card spot...after all, we won 13 games last year, we can win 10 in a row this year, right?" Well, the Texans have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs this year. A win here will show everyone just how good they really are. And after taking the Colts to the wire two weeks ago, I like the Texans in this one.
Houston 27 Tennessee 24
STATS
Last Week --
straight-up: 8-5 62%
against-the-spread: 8-5 62%
Season --
straight-up: 93-36 72%
against-the-spread: 77-50-2 61%
Week 10 - Nov. 12, 15/16
Thursday, Nov. 12
Chicago at San Francisco (-3) 8:20
Where's the Bears' defense? Where's the poise from QB Jay Cutler? What's happened to the preseason promises of a Bears run to the Super Bowl just because they had the "strong-arm" of Jay Cutler? If you'd have read my preseason prediction, you'd have known that this average team was going nowhere this year.
San Francisco 26 Chicago 21
Sunday, Nov. 15
Detroit at Minnesota (-16.5) 1p
The Vikes sack the Lions and inch closer to becoming this year's earliest division winner.
Minnesota 27 Detroit 6
New Orleans (-13.5) at St. Louis 1p
A mercy-rule type of game here, though the Rams have shown some competitive fire in recent weeks. The Saints did not look sharp at home v. Carolina last week, but I suspect they'll score quite a bit and look efficient/proficient while doing so.
New Orleans 31 St. Louis 14
Atlanta (-2) at Carolina 1p
Carolina's just teasing everyone right now. They've had a couple of decent efforts on the road, but QB Jake Delhomme is just not good enough to win games for his team. Atlanta's Matt Ryan is the better QB and the Falcons are the more consistent team. Atlanta grinds out a tough win on the road.
Atlanta 23 Carolina 19
Tampa Bay at Miami (-10) 1p
Yes, the Buccaneers pulled a win out of their hats last week thanks to the mistake-prone Packers. The host Dolphins won't be so kind to them this week. Big win for the 'Phins.
Miami 34 Tampa Bay 14
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-7) 1p
The Steelers are playing very sound, very solid football. So too are the Bengals. The Steelers have less than six days to prepare after their Monday-niter in Denver and that has to give the Bengals an advantage here. The Cincy pass defense has played extremely well and returned a Big Ben interception for a touchdown in their game back in week 3. But the Steelers are a much better, much more explosive team right now. Steelers in a bit of a rout.
Pittsburgh 34 Cincinnati 17
Buffalo at Tennessee (-6.5) 1p
Vince Young at QB = wins, people! I don' t know how...and I don't understand it, but somehow the Titans actually run the ball better with Young at QB than with Kerry Collins. Expect more of that this week against the Bills. Buffalo gets Trent Edwards back under center, but not even that piece of good news will help the Bills much at Tennessee.
Tennessee 27 Buffalo 17
Jacksonville at NY Jets (-7) 1p
Hmmm...not much to say here. A rather uninteresting matchup between to sputtering teams. I will say that when the Jags lose, they lose big: average loss is by 18.5 points. They'll keep it a little closer here, but not much.
NY Jets 23 Jacksonville 13
Denver (-3.5) at Washington 1p
Will the once-red-hot Broncs lose three in a row? Not against the Redskins crew. Expect a lot of sacks, turnovers and excuses from the Washington offense...a unit that has failed to score more than 17 points in any of their 8 games this season.
Denver 20 Washington 14
Kansas City at Oakland (-2) 4:05p
The Raiders are 2-6 yet I have no idea how they've won two games. This offense averages 9.75 points per game! That is monumentally, historically, incredibly bad. Why so bad? Let's start with a QB who completes 48% of his passes and averages only 125 yards passing per game. Add to that a dysfunctional coaching staff, locker room and organization that can only be attributed to the half-baked ideas of Al Davis and you come up with the worst team in all of sports. A complete, utter disaster.
Kansas City 13 Oakland 9
Philadelphia at San Diego (-1.5) 4:15p
Can the Chargers win 4 in a row? Their defense has been playing well of late giving up 7 to K.C., 16 to Oakland and 20 points to the Giants in their last three games. But none of those offenses is quite as potent as McNabb and the speedy Philly crew. And while Philly coach Andy Reid had a very bad game last week with respect to clock management (isn't that always the case with this guy???) as well as play calling, he and his team usually respond with a very good effort in the next game. The Eagles will play well, but without their starting CBs (both injured), I see Phillip Rivers throwing for at least 300 yards and 3 scores.
San Diego 27 Philadelphia 23
Seattle at Arizona (-9) 4:15p
Nerd alert. Repeat: nerd alert! This game will only be watchable by those fantasy players seeing how many points Warner, Fitzgerald, et al will score.
Arizona 34 Seattle 20
Dallas (-3) at Green Bay 4:15p
The Cowboys continue their fine run of play with a superior defensive effort against the Packers. Expect at least 4 sacks of Aaron Rodgers and a couple of turnovers. The 'Boys will bring too much pressure and the Packers' weak offensive line won't be able to handle it.
Dallas 24 Green Bay 17
New England at Indianapolis (-3) 8:20p
Clash of the Titans. Masters of the Universe. Captains (Yes, CaptainS. After all, it is Manning v. Brady.) America. Only Marvel v. D.C. comics could be a bigger draw than this game. As the Wonder Twins used to say: "Form of: Tom Brady. Shape of: an oblong-shaped pigskin. Wonder Twin powers: ACTIVATE!" Silly, I know. But so is all the hype leading up to this game.
Indy's been perilously close to losing the past two weeks at home v. San Fran and Houston. A rare, third home game in a row gives the Colts an advantage, but that will not be enough here. Their karma, their luck, their whatever-you-want-to-call-it is about to run out. Pats get the win because the Colts 29th ranked rushing attack will make Peyton too vulnerable to a big pass rush. And the Colts depleted secondary will get chewed-up by Brady, Moss and Welker. New England wins with relative ease.
New England 27 Indianapolis 17
Monday, Nov. 16
Baltimore (-10.5) at Cleveland 8:30p
A good night to catch a movie or catch up on your DVR list.
Baltimore 31 Cleveland 13
Syracuse at Louisville - Noon - 11/14/09
The Cards are desperate for any good news... I think Syracuse coming to town qualifies as good news. Watch the Cards put together a solid game against a beat-up, beat-down and just plain "beat" Syracuse team.
Louisville 24 Syracuse 21
Kentucky at Vanderbilt - 12:20pm - 11/14/09
The Cats have the better squad and a win in this game will get them eligible to play in their fourth straight bowl game. They'll do it with class and with a healthy dose of Randall Cobb.
Kentucky 28 Vanderbilt 20
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STATS
Syracuse at Louisville - Noon - 11/14/09
